Palmer Report » Analysis
New York Attorney General Letitia James’ big announcement on Thursday was about the NRA – a major Trump 2016 campaign donor – and not about Donald Trump himself. But the real news here is that – based on court filings and this week’s media bombshell: a New York grand jury is in the process of criminally indicting Trump on various financial charges.
The question, of course, is what happens next. For starters, that’ll depend on when New York decides to hand down or unseal the indictment. It could happen today. It could happen after the election. We have no way of knowing. There’s no rule against indicting a sitting President on state-level charges, so it really comes down to whether New York wants to indict Trump before the election.
If Trump is indicted before the election, it’ll set off a court battle over whether Trump can be arrested while still in office. Even if he can’t be arrested and refuses to participate in the legal proceedings against him, New York can still put him on trial without his participation. But as slowly as the courts move, Trump’s jury trial won’t happen before the election anyway.
There are two major ways in which a Trump indictment would work in our favor. First, it would inform voters that Trump is facing criminal charges and that he’s likely headed to prison. This might not impact his base, but it would certainly impact voters who were already on the fence. Second, if Trump is indicted on something as straightforward as financial fraud, that would mean a near-automatic conviction. And with no pardon available on state charges, Trump would have to at least consider pursuing some kind of resignation plea deal in the hope of a reduced prison sentence.
But that’s not something we can count on. While we know that Donald Trump is going to be indicted in New York, we don’t know if it’ll happen before the election – and even if it does, it won’t cause Trump to fall through a trap door. An indictment would, however, serve to further weaken his already-sinking election prospects.
Even if Trump isn’t indicted before the election, the cat is now out of the bag in terms of the mainstream media finally covering the fact that Donald Trump is in the process of being criminally indicted. The media will keep covering this story, particularly as more details come to light. Again, Trump’s base won’t care, but voters in the middle will. You can use this media coverage to help convince them that Trump is a criminal who needs to be voted out. If Joe Biden wins, Trump is gong to prison for his crimes. It’s that straightforward.
