THE ARAB SPRING
GOOD MORNING LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, MY NAME IS CORRADO CANTATORE
AND I AM THE CEO AND FOUNDER OF DICE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SERVICES, AN
INDIPENDENT COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE CONSULTING COMPANY. MY WORKING EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO
THE HUNDREDS OF MY COLLEAGUES: OFFICER
WITH SPECIAL FORCES OF ITALIAN ARMY FIRST, THEN ATTACK HELICOPTER PILOT. RECRUITED BY THE ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE IN THE MIDDLE
SEVENTIES, I HAVE BEEN OPERATING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA FOR ABOUT 30
YEARS UNTIL I WAS POSTED IN WASHINGTON, DC AS THE CHIEF OF THE ITALIAN
INTELLIGENCE STATION. IN THAT POSITION,
I WAS IN CHARGE OF THE LIAISON WITH THE 16 AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES. WHO
REMEMBERS A MAN CALLED MOHAMMED BOUAZIZI? HE WAS A TUNISIAN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE
SELLER WHO BURNED HIMSELF ON DECEMBER 17, 2010 TO PROTEST THE CONFISCATION OF
HIS FRUITS AND VEGETABLES BY A WOMAN MUNICIPALITY AGENT. MOHAMMED WAS THE BREADWINNER OF HIS FAMILY
AND WAS SELLING VEGETABLES TO SURVIVE. HIS SUPREME SACRIFICE WAS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE SO CALLED “ARAB SPRING”. AN UPRISING THAT IN 2 MONTHS OUSTED THE
PRESIDENT OF TUNISIA, BEN ALI, AND A FEW MONTHS LATER IT SPREAD AROUND REACHING
EGYPT, LYBIA, AND LITTLE BY LITTLE HAS TAKEN HOLD OF ALL THE MIDDLE EAST
REGION. NO COUNTRY IN THIS PART OF THE
WORLD HAS BEEN IMMUNE TO THIS “WIND OF SPRING”. TO A
DIFFERENT EXTENT, ALL NATIONS OF THE ARAB WORLD HAVE BEEN INVOLVED. OF COURSE, IN THOSE COUNTRIES WITH WEAKER
GOVERNMENTS, THE CHANGE WAS MORE DRASTIC. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS LIBYA WHERE NATO COUNTRIES (ALTHOUGH FOR THEIR OWN
INTERESTS) WERE LED BY FRANCE IN THEIR ASSISTANCE TO THE REBELS.
TO
HAVE A
POINT OF COMPARISON MORE UNDERSTANDABLE WE
CAN SAY THAT THE ARAB SPRING HAS BEEN
AS THE FRENCH REVOLUTION IN EUROPE IN 1989. BUT AS RETIRED INTELLIGENCE
OFFICER I CAN NOT KEEP SILENT ABOUT
SOME PIECES OF
INFORMATION UPON WHICH THE ARAB SPRING IT WAS NOT A
SPONTANEOUS MOVEMENT, BUT RATHER A NEO-COLONIALIST INSTRUMENTALISATION. IF ANYONE CARES ABOUT THESE THEORIES IS SUFFICIENT TO TAKE
NOTE OF THE LINK
HERE BELOW, AFTER YOU CONNECT
WITH THE SITE OF
"TUNISIA SECRET" YOU SHOULD REGISTER TO SEE
THE VIDEO. AS WELL I CAN NOT BE
SILENT ON THE FACT THAT MOST
OF WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
IS TIED TO A
RACE TO EXPLOIT A HUGE GAS
AND OIL FIELDS DISCOVERED IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
PROVINCE. THIS PERAPS GIVES YOU A MORE COMPLETE PICTURE OF THE REGION WE ARE LOOKING
TODAY ............. BUT THIS IS
ANOTHER STORY!
LET'S
GO BACK TO THE ARAB
SPRING. TO SEE THE FRUITS OF “ARAB SPRING” WE SHOULD EXPECT THE MIDDLE
EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TO TAKE THE SAME AMOUNT OF TIME THAT IT TOOK FRANCE TO
STABILIZE FOLLOWING THEIR REVOLUTION OF 1799. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE ARAB SPRING TO TAKE LESS TIME
THAN THE FRENCH DID, THANKS TO MODERN TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS. HOWEVER,
UNFORTUNATELY, A LOT OF BLOOD HAS TO FLOW. IN THE ARAB WORLD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALGERIA DUE TO ITS COMMUNIST CONNECTION WITH THE FORMER USSR, ALL
COUNTRIES WERE GOVERNED BY DICTATORSHIPS OR MONARCHIES, SO THESE COUNTRIES HAD
NO INTEREST IN STARTING STRUCTURAL REFORMS. SOMEONE COULD OJECT THE CASE OF THE
ARAB EMIRATES, WHO USE THEIR OIL AND POSITION TO MODERNIZE THEIR STRUCTURE.
THEY HAVE CAREFULLY MODERNIZED ON THE SURFACE, BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY,
ALL BELONGS TO THE KING. NO COUNTRY WANTS TO GO THROUGH A STRUCTURAL REFORM
THAT MAY LESSEN THEIR CONTROL OF THE PEOPLE AND THE OIL. THIS IS THE REASON WHY WHEN THE RECESSION HIT
THE WPRLD IN 2008, ONLY THE ARABIC COUNTRIES RICH IN OIL WERE IN A WAY IMMUNE
TO THE ECONOMIC DISASTER BECAUSE AS THE CRISIS BECAME WORSE, OIL PRICES ROSE
BENEFITING OIL RICH COUNTRIES AND HURTING EVEN MORE THE OIL POOR.
THIS DISPARITY AMONG NEIGHBORING ARABIC COUNTRIES, WAS A MAJOR
IGNITOR OF THE ARAB SPRING, WHICH WILL BECOME THE ARAB SUMMER, AUTUMN, AND WINTER
WHICH WILL STAY FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. SOME OF YOU CAN OBJECT THAT IN
TURKEY, THINGS ARE NOT GOING AS THE REST OF THE MIDDLE EAST. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THANKS TO MOUSTAFA
KEMAL, NAMED ATATURK (THE FATHER OF TURKS).
MOUSTAFA WAS FOR TURKEY WHAT NAPOLEON WAS FOR FRANCE. ATATURK ABOLISHED THE CALIPHATE (THE CALIPH
WAS KING IN THE FORMER ISLAMIC TURKISH
EMPIRE AND HE HOLD IN HIS ANDS THE SECULAR AND CLERICAL POWER). ATATURK DIVIDED
THEESE POWERS FOLLOWING tHE FRENCH MODEL.
TURKEY IS AHEAD OF OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES THAT FOR THE MOST PART
ARE LEFT WITH AN ARCHAIC MONARCHY SYSTEMS, CORRUPTED BY WESTERN POWERS OVER THE
YEARS FOR THE BENEFIT OF BUSINESSES AND PROFITS, NOT SO MUCH FOR THE BENEFIT OF
THE PEOPLE.
SUMMARIZING: IF THE ARAB
SPRING HAS BEEN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST LIKE THE FRENCH REVOLUTION (1789), THE
RECENT UNREST IN TURKEY ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WHICH IN 1968 CROSSED THE
UNITED STATES AND EUROPE. BUT WE MUST ALWAYS REMEMBER WHAT APPEND IN
EGYPT AND THE TWO FACES OF ARAB SPRING.
IRAN - THE NUCLEAR TREATH
THE LAST PART OF OUR CONVERSATION TODAY WILL BE ABOUT IRAN. I THINK IT IS THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF
THE PRESENTATION FOR A SERIES OF ECONOMICAL AND POLITICAL REASONS THAT WILL
HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON OUR DAILY LIVES. THE SENTIMENT LEADING TO THE ARAB
SPRING TOUCHED IRANIANS WAY BEFORE IT HIT THE ARAB. THIS IS BECAUSE THE PERSIAN CIVILIZATION HAS
THOUSaND YEARS ADVANTAGE OVER THE ARAB WORLD.
AT A TIME WHEN PERSIA WAS A MAGNIFICENT EMPIRE, THE ARABS WERE STILL
TRIBES NOMADS IN THE DESERT. ANOTHER
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE THAT SHOULD BE UNDERLINED IS THE ROLE PLAYED IN IRAN BY
MOHAMMED MOSSADEQ. AS ALWAYS THE
HISTORY OF A COUNTRY IS WRITTEN BY ITS SONS. 30 YEARS AFTER ATATURK ENDED ITS INDEPENDENCE
WAR IN TURKEY, MOSSADEQ BECOME PRIME MINISTE OF IRAN AND HE WAS ABLE TO END THE
STRANGULATING AGREEMENT THE BRITISH HAD WITH IRAN FOR EXPLOITING THE RICH OIL
RESERVE OF THAT COUNTRY. MOSSADEQ CANCELLED THE CONCESSION GIVEN TO THE BRITISH
IN 1933, FROM THE SHAH REZA CHAN (THE FATHER OF REZA PAHLAVI, THE LAST SHAH).
MOSSADEQ IN THE 3 YEARS HE WAS PRIME MINISTER (1951-53) TOOK THE
BRITISH BEFORE THE UNITED NATION, WAS RECEIVED BY PRESIDENT TRUMAN WHO ASSISTED
HIM IN DISMANTLING OF THE AGLO-IRANIAN OIL COMPANY. BY DOING SO, HE NATIONALIZED THE OIL FIELDS
AND FOUNDED THE NATIONAL IRANIAN OIL COMPANY. IN THE MEANTIME, HE LAUNCHED A GREAT PROGRAM TO MODERNIZE IRAN. I DON’T
WANT TO GIVE YOU A LECTURE OF HISTORY, BUT THE EXTENT OF THE FRUSTRATION FELT
BY THE IRANIANS FOLLOWING THE 2010 FLAWED ELECTION OF AMADINEJAH, LED THEM TO
RIOTS AND PROTESTS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, IS THE SAME FELT BY THE COUNTRIES IN
MIDDLE EAST AND FINDS ITS ROOTS IN THE MOSSADEQ NATIONALISM. DESPITE THIS
STRONG POPULAR UNREST, THE IRANIAN REGIME OF AYATOLAH HAS BEEN ABLE TO REPRESS
AND SUFFOCATE THE PROTESTS IN A BRUTAL MANNER, DUE TO ITS EFFICIENT AND
ESTABLISHED SECURITY APPARATUS WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE DAYS THAT
KHOMEINI TOOK POWER. THE FACT THAT THE PEOPLE OF TEHRAN WERE PROTESTING,
DOESN’T MEAN THAT FOREIGN INTERVENTION WILL BE WELCOMED. IRAN IS NOT LIKE THE REST OF ARAB COUNTRIES
DUE TO ITS DIVERSE POPULATION. A SMALL
MINORITY SURROUNDING BY BIG MAJORITY: SHIITES ARE A MINORITY IN THE MUSLIM
WORLD AND SUNNIS ARE THE MAJORITY. MORE THEY HAVE ALWAYS PERSECUTED THE SHIITE
MINORITY, IRANIANS AS A WHOLE ARE VERY NATIONALISTS,
SEEK TO BE RECOGNIZED AS A FIRST CLASS SOCIETY, AND ARE PROUD OF THEIR LONG
SUCCESSFUL HERITAGE. WE SHOULD REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED IN THE IRAQ/IRAN WAR
WHERE IRAQ ALMOST LOST (AND WE WERE BACKING IT). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY KIND OF LAND
OPERATION IN IRAN WILL BE A DISASTER BECAUSE THEY HAVE THREE LAYERS OF DEFENSE:
1) THE ARMY;
2) “GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION” (PASDARAN) - SIMILAR TO A
NATIONAL GUARD - WHO ARE EXTREMELY WELL TRAINED AND ARE RELIGIOUSLY AND
POLITICALLY MOTIVATED;
3) THE BASSIJI, CONCENTRATED IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE, THIS ORGANIZATION IS SIMILAR TO A POPULAR MILITIA AND IT COVER THE
ENTIRE TERRITORY OF IRAN.
HOW SERIOUS IS THE NUCLEAR THREAT POSED BY IRAN?
THE FOLLOWING SLIDES GIVE AN OVERVIEW ON HOW BIG IS THE OF
IRANIAN EFFORT EXPECIALY IN THE URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROGRAM.
IN THIS SLIDE, YOU SEE THE FAMOUS GAS CENTRYFUGHES USED TO
ENRICH THE URANIUM. THIS STUFF TURNS
AROUND GAS OF URANIUM AT 100,000 ROUND PER MINUTES AND THEY ARE CHAINED
TOGETHER IN THOUSANDS OF LONG CASCADES. AT THE END OF THIS PROCESS, YOU GET THE BARS OF URANIUM U235 THAT CAN BE
USED TO POWER NUCLEAR PLANTS AND/OR CREATE BOMBS. NOW ALL THE WESTERN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE TRYING TO DISCOVER
WHERE THESE SITES ARE LOCATED BECAUSE IF YOU STOP THE ENRICHMENT PROCESS, YOU
CAN PREVENT THE PRODUCTION OF THE ESSENTIAL COMPONENT TO CREATE A NUCLEAR BOMB
ARE THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS ABLE TO WEPONIZE A NUCLEAR BOMB? THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IRAN IS PROLIFERATING BUT IT IS STILL
UNCLEAR AT WHICH POINT THEY HAVE ARRIVED.
THE MAIN QUESTION THE EXPERTS ARE DEBATING IS: ARE THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS
ABLE TO WEAPONIZE A NUCLEAR BOMB? TO PASS FROM THE ENRICO FERMI REACTOR TO
MODERN NUCLEAR BOMBS? THE ANSWER COME FROM THE PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES ON OCTOBER
4th, 2013 IN AN INTERVEW WITH ASSOCIATED PRESS PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA SAYS U.S.
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES BELIEVE IRAN IS STILL "A YEAR OR MORE" AWAY
FROM PRODUCING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AN ASSESSMENT HE ACKNOWLEDGED WAS AT ODDS WITH
ISRAEL.
IN CONCLUSION: MY OPINION IS THAT WE CAN NOT PREVENT IRAN TO
BECOME A NUCLEAR POWER, SO WE HAVE VERY FEW OPTIONS IN A REALLY SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME:
- NEGOTIATION TO DISSUADE ?
- BOMBING TO PREVENT ?
I LEAVE THESE OPTIONS UP TO EACH ONE OF YOU AND I AM READY TO
DISCUS IT BECAUSE WHATEVER WILL BE THE FINAL DECISION OF PRESIDENT OBAMA, IT
WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT OUR LIFE.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION
AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTIONS?
