Da Politico
By Kyle Cheney, Heather Caygle
If Democrats take back the House, they’ll immediately face pressure from their base to impeach Trump. But it may not be their best move.
A tidal wave of liberal disdain for President Donald Trump may help deliver the House to Democrats in 2018. And if it does, the new majority will face an immediate, fateful choice: to pursue Trump's impeachment as the base demands, or to coax their allies away from the doomsday button.
Democratic lawmakers acknowledge that their voters are hungry for Trump’s removal from office, even if there is no consensus on the grounds for his impeachment. Polls on the question show as many as three-quarters of Democrats already back impeachment, and one deep-pocketed ally, California megadonor Tom Steyer, has been mounting an expensive pressure campaign across the country to build support for Trump's impeachment. Democratic hostility toward the Republican president seems to intensify daily.
But lawmakers who recall the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton are wary of sparking a political backlash for appearing too eager to remove a president without buy-in from independents and even some Republicans. Their tallest task may be persuading fellow Democrats to cool their jets. How the party handles the explosive question of impeachment could determine whether its new majority is still standing two years later.
"Impeachment, it's not something you ought to welcome. It's not something you ought to be ready to — it's not something you want," said Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who was elected by his colleagues last week to be the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, the panel that handles impeachment matters.
If Democrats retake the House, Nadler will instantly become the party's gatekeeper on the issue. In fact, his expertise in constitutional law — as well as his outsized voice opposing the Clinton impeachment in 1998 — was a factor in his selection to lead committee Democrats. While he says impeachment would surely be on the table in a Democrat-led House, it's far from certain it would be the right call — politically or constitutionally. And it'll be up to his committee to tell voters why.
"If we were in the majority and if we decide that the evidence isn't there for impeachment — or even if the evidence is there we decide it would tear the country apart too much, there's no buy-in, there's no bipartisanship and we shouldn't do it for whatever reason — if we decide that, then it's our duty to educate the country why we decided it," Nadler said in an interview.
It's a risky proposition with an animated Democratic base demanding the party's leaders use the full range of their powers to target Trump. And some of that pressure is coming from within.
"I think a lot of the base would push strongly for impeachment. I think many of us feel like the lines have been crossed," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who supports impeaching Trump.
The debate is roiling House Democrats, with progressives forcing a debate over the issue even as vulnerable incumbents, particularly members in districts that favored Trump, worry it could jeopardize their future in Congress.
Earlier this month, 58 House Democrats led by Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) — nearly a third of their caucus — voted to begin debate on articles of impeachment against Trump, despite calls by Democratic leadership to spike the measure. And now those on the other side of the debate are already fretting about how far their colleagues and the Democratic base will try to take the issue ahead of the midterms.
“I realize that maybe I’m in the minority in our party,” said Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), one of 12 Democrats from a district Trump won in 2016, who opposes impeachment. “I know there are contrary views, obviously, with Al Green forcing us to vote on something that I think was entirely unnecessary and hurtful to people in certain districts.”
Democrats like Bustos say they are waiting for the outcome of a special counsel investigation into Trump associates' ties to Russia, which has raised the specter of indictments in Trump's inner circle and even an obstruction of justice charge against the president himself. Other Democrats say the president's handling of race issues and business conflicts of interest already present grounds for impeachment.
But Huffman acknowledged that most members of the Democratic caucus aren't there yet, and he says many are nervous about the prospect of provoking a political backlash, as Republicans did after impeaching Clinton.
"I think there'll be a lot of nervousness about not repeating that mistake," Huffman said. "As someone who favors impeachment, I feel strongly it needs to be bipartisan. I think that's one of the things
Republicans got wrong in '98. The bipartisan piece of it is assurance to the public that you're not just playing partisan games. We're a long way from Republicans joining us."
Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), who has filed his own articles of impeachment against Trump, said he understands why some Democrats are reluctant to join the effort right now. But he said it would be a mistake to compare Trump and Clinton.
“There’s a difference between colluding with Russia to win an election and obstructing justice ... and having a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky," Cohen said.
Still, some Democrats are trying to urge caution even as their liberal colleagues move full steam ahead. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) acknowledged the "enormous antipathy" for Trump in the Democratic base but said impeachment must be treated as "a last resort remedy."
“Winning the House shouldn’t be seen as a referendum one way or the other on the question of
impeachment. To insist otherwise calls into question the credibility of the entire effort,” Connolly said. “I think that is a huge mistake and a pitfall at all costs to be avoided.”
Connolly said if Democrats retake the House and decide to consider impeachment, they must prioritize "a fact-based process" that persuades non-Democrats of their course. "I don't take an oath to Tom Steyer or anyone else," he said. "I take an oath to the Constitution of the United States, and this is a constitutional process."
Several Democrats also noted that it makes little sense to pursue impeachment without Republican buy-in because the process would then surely be stopped cold in the Senate. The House requires a simple majority vote to impeach a president, but removal from office requires a two-thirds vote after a trial in the Senate — a threshold that Democrats are certain to be well short of in the next Congress.
Nadler argued that it makes little sense to pursue a partisan impeachment under those conditions. Huffman, though, said he disagreed, calling the House and Senate processes "apples and oranges." It's one of many thickets Democrats will have to wade through if they retake the House.
While Democrats like Cohen have no qualms about talking impeachment now, he acknowledged there would likely have to be a “smoking gun” to get Republicans and even wary Democrats on board.
For Democrats reluctant to even broach the topic, that may mean explicit evidence linking Trump to Russian collusion or obstruction of justice in Mueller’s report. Anything less, Bustos and other moderate lawmakers argue, and Democrats risk imperiling their House majority almost as soon as they take control.
“People in a swing district — I’m literally a 50-50 district — they just want us to get something done,” Bustos said. “If we win back the majority and we don’t stay focused on what people want us to stay focused on, that majority will be short lived.”
.
