Republicans’ vigorous defense of Brett Kavanaugh jolted the GOP base and boosted the party's spirits heading into the midterms.
But sustaining that momentum through Election Day won't be easy.
The “Brett bounce,” as some Republican operatives have referred to it, coincided with the moment when voters began to tune into the midterm elections in earnest. Several Republican Senate campaigns began airing TV ads and aggressively fundraising off the Kavanaugh fight, while attempting to spin it into a larger argument about control in Washington and the threat to President Donald Trump if Democrats win.
But Democrats say their voters are equally galvanized. Anger on the left is high after Republicans muscled Kavanaugh through in the face of sexual assault allegations against him. Protesters have stormed Capitol Hill in recent weeks aiming to pressure swing votes on both sides of the aisle.
The operative question after Kavanaugh’s confirmation: Which side’s energy will be more intense and sustained over the next month?
“Anger always lasts longer than happiness,” said Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster. “Our side is going to be angry. We know anger lasts. What we don’t know is, does winning lead to energy or does it lead to complacency? That’s going to be the challenge they’re going to face.”
Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, said Republican voters responded when Kavanaugh’s nomination appeared to be in jeopardy, a welcome turn after GOP enthusiasm had lagged for most of the midterm cycle. But he also said it was uncertain whether that intensity would last into November, and whether the court battle would influence swing voters definitively in one direction.
“I believe Republicans are in a stronger position now to hold onto the Senate and are likely to do so,” Bolger said. “The House, it's a little more up for grabs.”
Bolger said the intensified Republican base might help the party in rural House districts and areas Trump won in 2016, where Republican turnout can counteract Democratic enthusiasm if the base stays engaged over the next four weeks. But in suburban districts where independent and moderate Republican voters had already been moving away from the party given their antipathy for Trump, the Supreme Court clash could accelerate the party’s troubles.
“If you're in a Republican district and you see a lot [of] barns, you’re in good shape,” Bolger said. “If you’re in Republican district and you see a lot of cul-de-sacs, you should be more nervous.”
With Kavanaugh’s confirmation now in the rearview mirror, Republicans are already working to keep him front and center in their voters’ minds. The New York Times reported Friday that Rep. Jerry Nadler, who would chair the House Judiciary Committee if Democrats win the majority, said they would likely open an investigation into Kavanaugh. Republicans jumped on the news.
“Trump supporters - The fight isn’t over. You better believe that Democrats are going to do everything in their power to impeach Kavanuagh (sic) from the Supreme Court if they take control of Congress in November,” Donald Trump Jr. tweeted Friday. “This is war. Time to fight.”
Alex Conant, a former top aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, pointed out that a little more than a month ago, the investigations into Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and lawyer Michael Cohen were headline news. The four weeks between Kavanaugh’s confirmation vote and Election Day is a political eternity, Conant said. Republicans need to run TV ads on Kavanaugh to continue to stoke their voters’ anger and avoid distractions.
Republicans are attempting to take advantage of the momentary boost. Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC invested in battleground races, received millions of dollars in new commitments from donors this past week, spokesman Chris Pack said. Republican Mike Braun in Indiana sent four separate fundraising emails about Kavanaugh in a 25-hour time period attacking Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly for opposing the judge.
In Montana’s Senate race, Republicans believe they have been gaining ground against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who just weeks ago was considered a clear favorite for reelection. Matt Rosendale, the Republican candidate, held a rally to support Kavanaugh’s confirmation Saturday, and released a new TV ad attacking Tester for opposing the judge, tying him to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee.
In North Dakota, Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is the party’s most endangered incumbent but voted against Kavanaugh. In a local news interview, she said if she had made a political decision, she would have likely gone the other way. Republicans were bullish on defeating Heitkamp prior to the vote, and believe it may have sealed their victory in the state.
Heitkamp’s campaign said it had 500 new volunteers offer to help since she announced her decision on Kavanaugh, and five Democratic senators emailed their fundraising lists soliciting donations on her behalf, citing her opposition to the judge.
Heitkamp released a new TV ad Saturday attempting to explain her decision to voters.
“Honestly, I don’t think he told the truth. And even if he did, he showed himself to be too biased to be impartial,” Heitkamp said of Kavanaugh. She added that her decision was to “put politics aside and do what’s right for our country.”
Nowhere is the fight more significant than in Missouri, a state Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points that features a close campaign between Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley. McCaskill came out against Kavanaugh before the hearing that examined the allegations against him, and Hawley has made the Supreme Court central to his campaign since Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement over the summer.
Gregg Keller, a veteran Republican operative in the state, said Hawley has seen a significant bump from the increased Republican enthusiasm. He pointed to a Republican poll conducted by a pro-Hawley super PAC this week showing him leading by 8 percentage points —- Hawley’s best showing of the cycle, though it’s at odds with recent public data.
The surge came because Republicans were galvanized by the court, Keller said, adding that Democrats who dismiss the enthusiasm as a temporary “sugar high” are misreading the political environment.
“It’s Republicans who were not going to vote in the midterm election now being willing to crawl over glass to vote in the election,” he said.
Roy Temple, a former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party, dismissed that notion. He said because Hawley has made the Supreme Court central to his campaign since midsummer, any advantage he would gain from the current fight was already “baked in” to his campaign.
“I think Republicans would have had a stronger point if Kavanaugh were defeated,” Temple said. “Then you would have sustained anger on their side. It's not been my experience that elation is the fuel that drives people to the polls.”
Democratic challengers in GOP-held Senate seats split on Kavanaugh. Nevada Rep. Jacky Rosen attacked Sen. Dean Heller for his vote to confirm Kavanaugh, and Nevada is the only Senate contest where Democrats have spent on advertising attacking Republicans over the Supreme Court. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema opposed Kavanaugh, saying his demeanor during his hearing was “ugly and partisan.” Her opponent, Republican Rep. Martha McSally, backs the judge.
In Tennessee, former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen said Friday he still supports Kavanaugh, though he said it was a more difficult decision after the sexual assault allegations. Bredesen’s opponent, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, has been a stalwart supporter of the nominee and her campaign had consistently attacked Bredesen for waiting until the last minute to announce his position.
Bob Tuke, a former Democratic candidate for Senate in Tennessee, said Bredesen “probably” helped himself politically by supporting Kavanaugh, but added he didn’t think it would have any lasting impact on the race.
“I think on Sunday most of the people will be [moving] on,” he said.
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