| By Amber Phillips with Caroline Anders (TWP) |
What would it mean if Republicans take the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections – a very likely situation? What if they take the House and the Senate and thus control both chambers of Congress?
Or what would happen if Democrats somehow keep their majorities, which is also possible?
Here’s a rundown of three scenarios of congressional control, in order of likelihood, based on what we know now about the midterm elections. I go into more depth on all of this here.
1. Republicans take the House, Democrats keep the Senate
(Stephanie Hays/The Washington Post/iStock) |
In a GOP-majority House, Republicans could ...
Disband the Jan. 6 committee: House Republican leaders have expressed no interest in investigating the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. They’ve even ignored subpoenas to talk about what they know. Plus, the only two Republicans willing to serve on the committee (Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger) will no longer have jobs in Congress next year, which is telling about the direction the Republican Party is going. The committee is authorized only through the end of this year, but a Democratic-controlled Congress could reauthorize it to keep investigating.
Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) at a Jan. 6 committee hearing in July. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP) |
Investigate Hunter Biden: A federal investigation looking at whether the president’s son committed tax fraud and lied to pass a background check to buy a gun seems to have fizzled. And there has yet to be a smoking gun related to whether President Biden benefited from Hunter Biden’s various international business deals. But Republicans have promised to pick things back up with Congress’s investigatory powers if they get the majority.
Start lots of other investigations: Republican leaders will probably be under enormous pressure — including from Donald Trump — to use their newfound investigatory powers in the House to dig into pretty much everything about the Biden administration: how he ended the Afghanistan war, his border policy, the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago ...
Meanwhile, in a Democratic-majority Senate, Democrats could ...
Mostly just confirm Biden judges: There’s not much they could do to stop GOP House investigations of President Biden. And don’t expect much compromise on legislation with House Republicans. But Senate Democrats probably would help the president out by continuing to approve his nominations for judges, or another Supreme Court justice if there were a surprise opening on the court.
2. Republicans win both chambers
 (Stephanie Hays/The Washington Post/iStock) |
In a GOP-majority House and Senate, Republicans could ...
Stymie Biden’s agenda: In the first two years of Biden’s presidency, Republicans worked with him on a surprising number of issues: infrastructure, veteran health benefits, competitiveness with China and gun laws. But with two years to go before a presidential election, Republicans have more incentive to block Biden’s agenda.
Hold up court vacancies: We’re not expecting vacancies on the Supreme Court in the near future, but anything can happen. And if a seat opens up, the top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has demonstrated a ruthless ability to hold a seat open until a Republican president can appoint someone.
Debate a national abortion ban: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) got the ball rolling when he introduced legislation to ban abortion across the nation after 15 weeks. Senate Republican leaders immediately distanced themselves from the idea, but there will be a lot more pressure to consider this if Republicans have the majorities in Congress. (Although Democrats in the Senate would certainly filibuster it, and no way would Biden sign it into law.)
3. Democrats keep both chambers
 (Stephanie Hays/The Washington Post/iStock) |
If they kept the House and Senate, Democrats could ...
Take another whack at liberal priorities: Democrats would have a second shot at trying to pass national protections for abortion, same-sex marriage and voting rights. But they would need to have a really great election and actually expand their majority in the Senate by two seats to break through the filibuster to do some of this.
Limit what a President Trump could do: Democrats are starting to think about what happens if Trump or a like-minded candidate wins the presidency. They’ve already proposed legislation to make it harder for presidents to filter out federal government workers who don’t agree with them.
Maybe try to keep Trump from running: The New York Times reports that some Democrats are drafting legislation to prevent Trump from running for president, because of his role in the Jan. 6 attack. But it’s a long shot.
The Oath Keepers trial, real quick
Stewart Rhodes, founder of Oath Keepers, in 2013. (Jared Ramsdell/Connecticut Journal Inquirer/AP) |
What’s happening: The founder of a right-wing militant group that prosecutors say was at the center of the Jan. 6 attack is one of five people on trial beginning today, accused of a serious crime called seditious conspiracy.
What is seditious conspiracy? It’s essentially an accusation that Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes and his cohorts tried to overthrow the government. It’s a rare charge.
The significance of this trial: The federal government has prosecuted hundreds of people in connection with the attack, but mostly with smaller crimes, such as trespassing. To convict someone of actually trying to overthrow the government would be a big deal for the Jan. 6 investigation, report The Washington Post’s Rachel Weiner, Spencer S. Hsu and Tom Jackman.
In addition, watch what Rhodes says in his defense. He has said he was ready to do Trump’s bidding, if the president called on groups such as the Oath Keepers to help him stay in power. Over in Congress, the Jan. 6 committee has raised the question of whether Trump should be charged with seditious conspiracy too.
No comments:
Post a Comment