Anche Lehman sta per franare?

Dal Wall Street Journal

HEARD ON THE STREET
Lehman Lurches Into End Game
By PETER EAVISS
It long has been accepted wisdom on Wall Street that Lehman Brothers Holdings won't be allowed to collapse.
Now, the market isn't so sure.
Lehman's shares plunged 45% Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange, leaving its market value at $5.4 billion. Particularly disconcerting, the debt markets are starting to wonder whether Lehman's creditors could suffer losses.
Credit-default swaps on Lehman debt, reflecting the cost of protecting against a Lehman default, at one point Tuesday traded at about the same level as before the Federal Reserve agreed in March to support broker-dealers with a special credit line. Standard & Poor's also warned it may cut the firm's debt ratings because of the stock-price slump.
In July, Merrill Lynch's chief executive, John Thain, took the pain and purged the balance sheet of large amounts of problem assets. Lehman CEO Richard Fuld was expected to follow suit. But the bank didn't do anything big, either because the write-downs from selling assets at fire-sale prices would wipe out most of Lehman's capital, or because management was in denial.
That inaction has left Lehman at a nadir from which it will be very hard to rebuild confidence.
As a result, all eyes are turning to the Fed. The central bank can supply emergency funds to sustain Lehman through the special credit facility that it set up after the Bear Stearns meltdown.
If Lehman Brothers decides to draw down large amounts on this facility, the Fed would have even stronger leverage over the bank's management to dictate its next steps.
Going by the Bear Stearns example, a Fed-sponsored rescue could leave Lehman shareholders with very little. That isn't a surprise. But the heightened default expectations signaled in the credit-default swaps show investors are starting to bet the Fed mightn't be prepared to protect the value of Lehman's debt.
In the Bear case, the Fed was able to bring in J.P. Morgan Chase as an acquirer. That allowed Bear to avoid bankruptcy, which could have sparked a destabilizing unwinding of its trading positions. In addition, J.P. Morgan had the expertise to help oversee and run Bear's operations in the shaky period after it collapsed.
Today, the Fed might struggle to find another J.P. Morgan. At a low enough stock price, a large commercial bank might get tempted. But there is such skepticism about the value Lehman has placed on its real-estate assets that buyers mightn't feel confident pulling the trigger quickly.
The Fed may give Lehman more time, if it comes out with early results Wednesday that aren't terrible and manages to sell a large package of assets.
But the market is close to giving up on Lehman.