By Aaron Blake
TWP
For weeks, Joe Biden’s lead in the 2020 presidential race has been growing, and there’s been little good news for the Trump campaign.
But a lot can happen in three and a half months. Here are a few things that could still shake up the race in significant ways.
1. An imminent Supreme Court vacancy
I started thinking of this after the news last week that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was being treated for a cancer recurrence, while saying her treatment was going well. That was days after she had been hospitalized for an infection. She said she’ll serve as long as she can “do the job in full," but her health scares are a source of anxiety — and deja vu — for liberals.
Justice Antonin Scalia died in February 2016, and Senate Republicans made the unprecedented decision to block the confirmation of President Barack Obama’s nominee to replace him. Polls showed Americans disagreed with that gambit, but they also showed that the vacancy likely accrued to Trump’s benefit.
As The Washington Post’s Philip Bump has written, voters who emphasized the next Supreme Court pick tilted toward Trump. GOP strategists have credited Trump with releasing a list of possible Supreme Court nominees ahead of the election, which perhaps whetted the appetite of some conservative-leaning voters.
The upside for Trump would be rallying his base behind a common cause. Whether Ginsburg or anyone else appears to be on the way out, expect him to again play up the importance of a GOP president appointing the next justice.
For weeks, Joe Biden’s lead in the 2020 presidential race has been growing, and there’s been little good news for the Trump campaign.
But a lot can happen in three and a half months. Here are a few things that could still shake up the race in significant ways.
1. An imminent Supreme Court vacancy
I started thinking of this after the news last week that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was being treated for a cancer recurrence, while saying her treatment was going well. That was days after she had been hospitalized for an infection. She said she’ll serve as long as she can “do the job in full," but her health scares are a source of anxiety — and deja vu — for liberals.
Justice Antonin Scalia died in February 2016, and Senate Republicans made the unprecedented decision to block the confirmation of President Barack Obama’s nominee to replace him. Polls showed Americans disagreed with that gambit, but they also showed that the vacancy likely accrued to Trump’s benefit.
As The Washington Post’s Philip Bump has written, voters who emphasized the next Supreme Court pick tilted toward Trump. GOP strategists have credited Trump with releasing a list of possible Supreme Court nominees ahead of the election, which perhaps whetted the appetite of some conservative-leaning voters.
The upside for Trump would be rallying his base behind a common cause. Whether Ginsburg or anyone else appears to be on the way out, expect him to again play up the importance of a GOP president appointing the next justice.
2. The likely voter switch
Polls this far from an election generally focus on registered voters. But as the election approaches, pollsters will shift their models to emphasize likely voters, who are not just registered but actually primed to vote.
There’s some reason to believe that could benefit Trump.
A recent Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, for instance, offered three matchups. In the head-to-head among registered voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points. In a model adjusting for high turnout, Biden’s lead dropped to 10. And in a model adjusting for low turnout, Biden’s lead shrank to seven.
The most recent Post-ABC poll shows something similar. The Post’s James Hohmann ran through those numbers, arguing that the race could indeed by tighter than it looks.
It’s generally assumed that likely-voter screens help Republicans, because their voters are slightly more likely to turn out. There is also more enthusiasm for Trump among his voters than for Biden among his — though that seems to be counterbalanced by Biden voters being enthusiastic about voting Trump out.
That said, there was little evidence Trump benefited from likely-voter polls in 2016. Some election post-mortems suggested likely-voter screens in some key states actually made Clinton’s lead look slightly bigger than it was.
Polls this far from an election generally focus on registered voters. But as the election approaches, pollsters will shift their models to emphasize likely voters, who are not just registered but actually primed to vote.
There’s some reason to believe that could benefit Trump.
A recent Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, for instance, offered three matchups. In the head-to-head among registered voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points. In a model adjusting for high turnout, Biden’s lead dropped to 10. And in a model adjusting for low turnout, Biden’s lead shrank to seven.
The most recent Post-ABC poll shows something similar. The Post’s James Hohmann ran through those numbers, arguing that the race could indeed by tighter than it looks.
It’s generally assumed that likely-voter screens help Republicans, because their voters are slightly more likely to turn out. There is also more enthusiasm for Trump among his voters than for Biden among his — though that seems to be counterbalanced by Biden voters being enthusiastic about voting Trump out.
That said, there was little evidence Trump benefited from likely-voter polls in 2016. Some election post-mortems suggested likely-voter screens in some key states actually made Clinton’s lead look slightly bigger than it was.
3. Biden’s flubs
One thing that has followed Biden for just about as long as he’s been in politics is his tendency to commit gaffes. The former vice president often says, “No one ever doubts that I mean what I say. The problem is, I sometimes say all that I mean.”
Biden has mostly avoided one of these in the general election (but not totally). They also cropped up in the primaries, like when he said, “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids” and immediately tried to correct himself.
Biden has kept a low profile of late, but that will have to change at some point. There will ostensibly be debates. The pandemic might wane, allowing for more traditional and less-scripted campaign moments.
There’s an argument to be made that gaffes matter less and less in an election in which both candidates have such tendencies. Perhaps the real danger for Biden, though, is that an accumulation of them could undercut the idea that he’s a steadier leader than Trump.
One thing that has followed Biden for just about as long as he’s been in politics is his tendency to commit gaffes. The former vice president often says, “No one ever doubts that I mean what I say. The problem is, I sometimes say all that I mean.”
Biden has mostly avoided one of these in the general election (but not totally). They also cropped up in the primaries, like when he said, “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids” and immediately tried to correct himself.
Biden has kept a low profile of late, but that will have to change at some point. There will ostensibly be debates. The pandemic might wane, allowing for more traditional and less-scripted campaign moments.
There’s an argument to be made that gaffes matter less and less in an election in which both candidates have such tendencies. Perhaps the real danger for Biden, though, is that an accumulation of them could undercut the idea that he’s a steadier leader than Trump.
4. The unprecedented coronavirus factor
Polls suggest the coronavirus outbreak is a clear and growing negative for Trump. Given his inability to adjust course, that seems likely to continue to be the case. Even as he clearly tried to right the ship on a number of fronts this week, his press secretary on Friday insisted he hasn’t changed his posture on masks.
But there’s another unpredictable way in which the virus could impact the election: by affecting turnout. Many states are moving toward mail-in balloting, for instance, but the GOP is fighting that. There are also arguments over which ballots will be counted; do they have to be mailed by Election Day or be received by then? What if too many people send in ballots too late or there are logjams in the Postal Service?
It doesn’t mean this will necessarily help one side or the other; it just means that we’ve never truly dealt with this kind of thing.
Polls suggest the coronavirus outbreak is a clear and growing negative for Trump. Given his inability to adjust course, that seems likely to continue to be the case. Even as he clearly tried to right the ship on a number of fronts this week, his press secretary on Friday insisted he hasn’t changed his posture on masks.
But there’s another unpredictable way in which the virus could impact the election: by affecting turnout. Many states are moving toward mail-in balloting, for instance, but the GOP is fighting that. There are also arguments over which ballots will be counted; do they have to be mailed by Election Day or be received by then? What if too many people send in ballots too late or there are logjams in the Postal Service?
It doesn’t mean this will necessarily help one side or the other; it just means that we’ve never truly dealt with this kind of thing.
