Michigan’s hard luck story has been told and retold. Detroit, once the Motor City of the World and fifth largest city in the US, today boasts the same population as Nashville, Tennessee and a 14% unemployment rate. The state’s unemployment rate is 8.8% — 2.3 points higher than the nation. And, sadly, so on.
Zogby Analytics just completed a poll of 500 Michigan voters and found that President Barack Obama’s popularity has suffered dramatically. The poll, conducted online February 26, shows the President’s job approval as upside down – 43% approve, 54% disapprove. This in a state that first elected him in 2008 with 57% of their vote, and then followed by re-electing him in 2012 with 54%. Perhaps most ominous for the President – and the Democrats he supports – is that only 32% of independent voters approval of his job performance. And only 25% of Michigan voters believe the country is headed in the right direction.
So that should spell a good year for the Republicans in the state, right? Hardly. Congress, which is half controlled by a GOP majority, gets a thumbs up from only 15%, with four in five (79%) disapproving and Democrats lead right now in the Congressional generic in the state by eight points – 40% to 32%. The current GOP governor, Rick Snyder, leads his Democratic challenger, but his job rating is only slightly higher than the President’s. And former two-term Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land holds only a tiny lead (41%-38%) over her Democratic opponent in the US Senate race to replace longtime Senator Carl Levin.
The GOP is very competitive in this swing state but we might have figured that the President’s low numbers would be a drag on his party. No doubt the Democrats are hurting but the Republicans cannot gloat or take out the champagne and victory cigars yet. Drilling down into the polling numbers a bit, that Congressional generic reveals that 25% are undecided overall – including 56% of independents. Over 20% are still undecided in the Senate race, including a much larger percentage of independents.
Michigan voters speak for the nation. Voters are at record levels of disenchantment but neither party is quite ready to pick up the mantle of this disenchantment and express voter sentiment. In the same Michigan poll, we found that the anger and resentment of 2010 is largely gone. Only 17% described themselves as “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. Another 9% said that politics and government were largely “okay” – but 62% said that “significant improvement is needed”. The problem for both political parties is that neither is seen as providing that significant improvement.
So we are left with demographics and turnout. If the economy is improving and Obamacare is working enough to energize its beneficiaries, then look for some Democratic surprises in November. If the GOP can resolve its “who is the real conservative” dilemma and speak with a united voice they may be able to mobilize their turnout as they did in 2010. On the flip side, if in the process the GOP finds its inner conservative soul in the form social issues, look for a significantly higher turnout of younger voters than in 2010 – particularly young women – who will come out to mainly vote against a party they are seeing more and more as retrograde.
For now, slight advantage to the GOP but it is still too early. Michigan voters are just not happy about anything or anyone just yet. When we asked those who said they were either “bitter” or “mad as hell” who they were most angry with, 37% said President Obama, 17% said the GOP, and 46% said they were mad at both.
(Zogby Analytics)
