. 'I don't want to express a view'

 CNN

Stephen Collinson and Caitlin Hu

'I don't want to express a view'

If America chose its presidents on the basis of the popular vote, Democrat Joe Biden would probably be home and dry already. National polls show him leading President Donald Trump by double digits or more — a massive gap 20 days before Election Day.

But the Electoral College system, in which states wield influence based on a formula that ultimately corresponds to the sizes of their populations, gives Trump hope of piecing together a narrow path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win. It’s easy to conjure at least three potential scenarios after November 3, including a narrow Trump win, a tight Biden victory or a comfortable romp to power for the Democratic nominee. (One caveat: Trump’s team insists that the polls are underestimating the size of his likely turnout and discounting legions of White working class voters who don’t normally show up to vote.)

To show how this might all play out, take a look at the map below of a potential Trump win: We’ve given the President all the states he won four years ago except Michigan and Wisconsin, which we awarded to Biden in a highly plausible scenario. In this case, it all comes down to Pennsylvania, whose 20 electoral votes could secure a second Trump term or send him packing. Currently, most polls have Biden leading in the Keystone State.

Of course, our first map represents only one possible scenario. There are seven or eight true swing states, which means there could be many paths to victory.  But at this point, from the data — and from the President’s travel schedule — he’s visiting nominally safe GOP states like Iowa and Georgia this week — it’s clear that he’s playing defense.

 

The map below represents the best deduction by CNN’s political team of the Electoral College outlook right now: Biden is projected to be 20 electoral votes over the line, once states deemed safe Democratic wins and those that are leaning that way are taken into consideration.

Many people in Washington are now quietly beginning to consider a third possible election result: a Biden surge so wide that he’d probably carry Democrats to victory in the Senate as well.

 

A blue wave like the one below could see Biden pick up most of the hotly contested swing states. If he runs the table through the Rust Belt, adding Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa to Michigan and Wisconsin, picks up North Carolina and Florida in the South and grabs Arizona out West, he could hit 350 electoral votes.

Of course, this is all just informed speculation right now. But somewhere in these maps lies the answer to the riddle of the entire election. You can come up with your own scenarios on CNN’s interactive electoral map.