(dal NYT)
HONG
KONG — I’ve been in China for the last week. It’s always instructive to
see how the world looks from the Middle Kingdom. Sometimes the best
insights come from just reading the local papers. On March 25, The China Daily published an essay
detailing how “Beijing authorities” had “launched inspection tours of
kindergartens this week to ensure that children are not overburdened
with schoolwork. Although Chinese, mathematics and English are supposed
to be taught to primary school students, it is not uncommon to see
pre-school-age children across China being forced to study these
subjects.” The essay went on to explain why it wasn’t healthy to “begin
preparing for the college entrance exam” in preschool.
Reading
that, I suddenly had a vision of a SWAT team from China’s Ministry of
Education bursting through the doors of kindergartens and declaring:
“Put those pencils and books down! Back away from your desks, and nobody
gets hurt!”
What a problem to have! Kindergartens teaching math and English too soon.
In
the same paper, there was also an article about the latest fighting
between Shiite pro-Iranian and Sunni pro-Saudi factions in Yemen.
Clashes there have focused on Yemen’s second-largest town, Taiz. Taiz?
Wait a minute! I was in Taiz in May 2013
working on a documentary about how Yemen was becoming an environmental
disaster. We focused on Taiz because, as a result of Yemen’s devastated
ecosystems, residents of Taiz get to run their home water faucets for
only 36 hours every 30 days or so.
So
there you have it. The news out of China is the crackdown on
kindergartens teaching math and English too early, and the news out of
Yemen is that Sunni and Shiite factions are fighting over a town that is
already so cracked up the water comes on only 36 hours a month and the
rest of the time you have to rely on roving water trucks. And that was
before the latest fighting.
But
at least we’ve found the problem. I’ve read that it’s all President
Obama’s fault. I wish. Obama has said and done some boneheaded things in
the Middle East (like decapitating the Libyan regime with no plan for
the morning after), but being wary about getting further embroiled in
this region is not one of them. We’re dealing here with something no
president has had to face: the collapse of the Arab state system after
70 years of failed governance.
Again,
the comparison with Asia is instructive. After World War II, Asia was
ruled by many autocrats who essentially came to their people and said,
“My people, we’re going to take away your freedom, but we’re going to
give you the best education, infrastructure and export-led growth
policies money can buy. And eventually you’ll build a big middle class
and win your freedom.” Over that same period, Arab autocrats came to
their people and said, “My people, we’re going to take away your freedom
and give you the Arab-Israel conflict.”
Asian
autocrats tended to be modernizers, like Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, who
just died last week at 91 — and you see the results today: Singaporeans
waiting in line for 10 hours to pay last respects to a man who vaulted
them from nothing into the global middle class. Arab autocrats tended to
be predators who used the conflict with Israel as a shiny object to
distract their people from their own misgovernance. The result: Libya,
Yemen, Syria and Iraq are now human development disaster areas.
Some
saw this coming. In 2002, a group of Arab social scientists produced
the U.N.’s Arab Human Development Report. It said the Arab world
suffered deficits of freedom, knowledge and women’s empowerment, and, if
it did not turn around, it would get where it was going. It was ignored
by the Arab League. In 2011, the educated Arab masses rose up to force a
turnaround before they got where they were going. Except for Tunisia
(the only Arab country whose autocrat was also a modernizer), that
awakening fizzled out. So now they’ve gotten where they were going:
state collapse and a caldron of tribal, sectarian (Shiite-Sunni,
Persian-Arab) civil wars — in a region bulging with unemployed, angry
youths and schools that barely function, or, if they do, they teach an
excess of religion not math.
I read President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt declaring
that “the challenges facing our national Arab security are grave, and
we have succeeded in diagnosing the reasons behind it.” And that was?
Too little Arab cooperation against Persians and Islamists. Really? Some
25 percent of Egyptians are illiterate today after $50 billion in U.S.
aid since 1979. (In China, illiteracy is 5 percent; in Iran, 15
percent.) My heart goes out to all the people in this region. But when
your leaders waste 70 years, the hole is really deep.
In
fairness, Sisi is trying to dig Egypt out. Nevertheless, Egypt may send
troops to defeat the rebels in Yemen. If so, it would be the first case
of a country where 25 percent of the population can’t read sending
troops to rescue a country where the water comes through the tap 36
hours a month to quell a war where the main issue is the 7th century
struggle over who is the rightful heir to the Prophet Muhammad — Shiites
or Sunnis.
Any Chinese preschooler can tell you: That’s not an equation for success.
