Bloomberg, Sensing an Opening, Revisits a Potential White House Run
Michael R. Bloomberg
has instructed advisers to draw up plans for a potential independent
campaign in this year’s presidential race. His advisers and associates
said he was galled by Donald J. Trump’s
dominance of the Republican field, and troubled by Hillary Clinton’s
stumbles and the rise of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on the
Democratic side.
Mr. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City,
has in the past contemplated running for the White House on a
third-party ticket, but always concluded he could not win. A confluence
of unlikely events in the 2016 election, however, has given new impetus
to his presidential aspirations.
Mr.
Bloomberg, 73, has already taken concrete steps toward a possible
campaign, and has indicated to friends and allies that he would be
willing to spend at least $1 billion of his fortune on it, according to
people briefed on his deliberations who spoke on the condition of
anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss his plans. He has
set a deadline for making a final decision in early March, the latest
point at which advisers believe Mr. Bloomberg could enter the race and
still qualify to appear as an independent candidate on the ballot in all
50 states.
He
has retained a consultant to help him explore getting his name on those
ballots, and his aides have done a detailed study of past third-party
bids. Mr. Bloomberg commissioned a poll
in December to see how he might fare against Mr. Trump and Mrs.
Clinton, and he intends to conduct another round of polling after the
New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9 to gauge whether there is indeed an
opening for him, according to two people familiar with his intentions.
His
aides have sketched out a version of a campaign plan that would have
the former mayor, a low-key and cerebral personality, give a series of
detailed policy speeches, backed by an intense television advertising
campaign that would introduce him to voters around the country as a
technocratic problem-solver and self-made businessman who understands
the economy and who built a bipartisan administration in New York.
Mr.
Bloomberg would face daunting and perhaps insurmountable obstacles in a
presidential campaign: No independent candidate has ever been elected
to the White House, and Mr. Bloomberg’s close Wall Street ties and
liberal social views, including his strong support for abortion rights
and gun control, could repel voters on the left and right.
But
his possible candidacy also underscores the volatility of a
presidential race that could be thrown into further turmoil by a
wild-card candidate like Mr. Bloomberg.
If
Republicans were to nominate Mr. Trump or Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a
hard-line conservative, and Democrats chose Mr. Sanders, Mr. Bloomberg —
who changed his party affiliation to independent in 2007 — has told allies he would be likely to run.
Edward
G. Rendell, the former governor of Pennsylvania and a past Democratic
National Committee chairman, said he believed Mr. Bloomberg could
compete in the race if activist candidates on the left and right
prevailed in the party primaries.
“Mike
Bloomberg for president rests on the not-impossible but somewhat
unlikely circumstance of either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz versus Bernie
Sanders,” said Mr. Rendell, a close ally of Mrs. Clinton’s who is also a
friend of Mr. Bloomberg’s. “If Hillary wins the nomination, Hillary is
mainstream enough that Mike would have no chance, and Mike’s not going
to go on a suicide mission.”
In a three-way race featuring Mr. Sanders and Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Rendell said he might back the former New York mayor.
“As
a lifelong Democrat, as a former party chairman, it would be very hard
for me to do that,” he said. “But I would certainly take a look at it —
absolutely.”
Mr.
Bloomberg declined to comment on his interest in the 2016 race, and
most of his associates would speak only on the condition that they not
be named. Mr. Bloomberg is irked by the perception that he has toyed too
often with running for national office, according to several
associates, and is said to be wary of another public flirtation.
At
the same time, these associates said, he has grown more frustrated with
what he sees a race gone haywire. A longtime critic of partisan primary
elections, Mr. Bloomberg has lamented what he considers Mrs. Clinton’s
lurch to the left in her contest against Mr. Sanders, especially her
criticism of charter schools and other education reforms that he pushed as mayor and has continued to support since leaving office.
